Draw a conclusion or make a prediction from data
When to use this goal
For students who read values from a display but cannot say what the data suggests or what is likely next. Present levels in reading graphs and in oral or written expression decide the response mode.
- Baseline
- Score two or three responses. The usual pattern is a conclusion that restates a value ("Monday has 5") rather than interpreting it, or a prediction with no evidence. Have a second adult score one sample.
- Tips
- Accept spoken responses recorded by an adult when writing is a barrier. Weather and class attendance give daily data for low-stakes practice.
- Limits
- Conclusions are judgments and two adults may disagree; use anchor examples. Does not measure computation or graph construction.
Original IEP Atlas template based on general measurement principles; not copied from any goal bank. ID ma-dat-017.
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Goal
By the annual IEP review date, given a graph or table and a question such as "what will probably happen next?" or "what does this data show?", the student will state a conclusion or prediction that the data supports and give one piece of evidence from the display independently, earning a score of at least 3 out of 4 on a 2-row data conclusion rubric (0 to 2 points per row), on 3 of 4 consecutive scored samples, as measured by a defined scoring rubric collected every two weeks.
Baseline: 1 out of 4 rubric points.
- Condition
- Observable behavior
- Criterion
- Measurement method
Measurability check11 of 11 met
Met: Observable behavior. Stated as an action.
Met: Condition. Stated.
Met: Unit fits the behavior. Rubric score fits this behavior.
Met: Explicit criterion. Number and unit stated.
Met: Mastery rule and schedule. Both stated.
Met: Method produces the metric. Rubric scoring gives rubric score data.
Met: Review timeframe. Stated.
Met: Baseline and target compatible. Same unit, change in the right direction.
Met: Aligned with area of need. Still about Patterns, Data & Graphs.
Met: Level of support. Defined.
Met: Blanks filled in. Nothing left to fill in.
Checks structure and wording only. Whether the goal fits the student is the team's call.
Short-term objectives (optional)
When are objectives required?Required for students on alternate assessments (34 CFR §300.320(a)(2)(ii)); some states require them for everyone.
Paste into your IEP system
Most district systems have a separate box for each part of a goal. Copy them one at a time, or all at once as labeled text.
- Area of need
- Math - Patterns, Data & Graphs
- Baseline
- 1 out of 4 rubric points.
- Annual goal481 characters
- By the annual IEP review date, given a graph or table and a question such as "what will probably happen next?" or "what does this data show?", the student will state a conclusion or prediction that the data supports and give one piece of evidence from the display independently, earning a score of at least 3 out of 4 on a 2-row data conclusion rubric (0 to 2 points per row), on 3 of 4 consecutive scored samples, as measured by a defined scoring rubric collected every two weeks.
- Timeframe
- By the annual IEP review date
- Condition
- Given a graph or table and a question such as "what will probably happen next?" or "what does this data show?"
- Behavior
- The student will state a conclusion or prediction that the data supports and give one piece of evidence from the display independently
- Criteria
- Earning a score of at least 3 out of 4 on a 2-row data conclusion rubric (0 to 2 points per row), on 3 of 4 consecutive scored samples
- Evaluation method
- A defined scoring rubric
- Schedule
- Every two weeks
Copied as plain text, with straight quotes and plain dashes.
Matching data sheet
Rubric tracker. Scores each rubric criterion and totals them.
Rubric tracker
Rubric score- Student label:
- Target:
- earning a score of at least 3 out of 4 on a 2-row data conclusion rubric (0 to 2 points per row)
- Mastery rule:
- on 3 of 4 consecutive scored samples
- Collection schedule:
- every two weeks
- Method:
- Rubric scoring
- Data collector:
Goal: By the annual IEP review date, given a graph or table and a question such as "what will probably happen next?" or "what does this data show?", the student will state a conclusion or prediction that the data supports and give one piece of evidence from the display independently, earning a score of at least 3 out of 4 on a 2-row data conclusion rubric (0 to 2 points per row), on 3 of 4 consecutive scored samples, as measured by a defined scoring rubric collected every two weeks.
| Date | Task / sample | Conclusion: the statement is supported by the data and answers the question | Evidence: a specific value or trend from the display is cited | Total (of 4) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preview shows 4 of 12 rows.
- Score each sample with a 2-row data conclusion rubric (0 to 2 points per row). Attach or reference the rubric's score descriptors.
- Use the same prompt type and conditions for each scored sample.
- If two people score, check agreement on a few samples before relying on the data.
The CSV opens in Excel or Google Sheets, with formulas. Sheets print blank; no student data is stored.