Describe likelihood and list the possible outcomes of an event
When to use this goal
For students who have not yet met chance as a math idea, who say an event is impossible when it is unlikely, or who cannot list all outcomes of a spinner or coin. Present levels in the words certain, likely, unlikely and impossible decide the starting point.
- Baseline
- Agree on the answer key for likelihood items as a team, since some events are debatable; keep only clear cases. For outcomes, a spinner with unequal sections tests whether the student lists outcomes or counts sections.
- Tips
- Classroom games with spinners and dice give real practice. The likelihood line is a permanent support for some students and a language scaffold.
- Limits
- Likelihood words are judgments; the key must be agreed in advance. Does not involve computing probability as a number.
Original IEP Atlas template based on general measurement principles; not copied from any goal bank. ID ma-dat-019.
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Goal
By the annual IEP review date, given 10 everyday events or spinner situations and the words certain, likely, unlikely and impossible, the student will label each event with the likelihood word that fits independently with at least 90% accuracy on likelihood and outcome items, on 3 of 4 consecutive probes, as measured by work-sample analysis collected every two weeks.
Baseline: 40% accuracy.
- Condition
- Observable behavior
- Criterion
- Measurement method
Measurability check11 of 11 met
Met: Observable behavior. Stated as an action.
Met: Condition. Stated.
Met: Unit fits the behavior. Percent accuracy fits this behavior.
Met: Explicit criterion. Number and unit stated.
Met: Mastery rule and schedule. Both stated.
Met: Method produces the metric. Work-sample analysis gives percent accuracy data.
Met: Review timeframe. Stated.
Met: Baseline and target compatible. Same unit, change in the right direction.
Met: Aligned with area of need. Still about Patterns, Data & Graphs.
Met: Level of support. Defined.
Met: Blanks filled in. Nothing left to fill in.
Checks structure and wording only. Whether the goal fits the student is the team's call.
Short-term objectives (optional)
When are objectives required?Required for students on alternate assessments (34 CFR §300.320(a)(2)(ii)); some states require them for everyone.
Paste into your IEP system
Most district systems have a separate box for each part of a goal. Copy them one at a time, or all at once as labeled text.
- Area of need
- Math - Patterns, Data & Graphs
- Baseline
- 40% accuracy.
- Annual goal369 characters
- By the annual IEP review date, given 10 everyday events or spinner situations and the words certain, likely, unlikely and impossible, the student will label each event with the likelihood word that fits independently with at least 90% accuracy on likelihood and outcome items, on 3 of 4 consecutive probes, as measured by work-sample analysis collected every two weeks.
- Timeframe
- By the annual IEP review date
- Condition
- Given 10 everyday events or spinner situations and the words certain, likely, unlikely and impossible
- Behavior
- The student will label each event with the likelihood word that fits independently
- Criteria
- With at least 90% accuracy on likelihood and outcome items, on 3 of 4 consecutive probes
- Evaluation method
- Work-sample analysis
- Schedule
- Every two weeks
Copied as plain text, with straight quotes and plain dashes.
Matching data sheet
Accuracy tracker. Records number correct and number attempted.
Accuracy tracker
Percent accuracy- Student label:
- Target:
- with at least 90% accuracy on likelihood and outcome items
- Mastery rule:
- on 3 of 4 consecutive probes
- Collection schedule:
- every two weeks
- Method:
- Work-sample analysis
- Data collector:
Goal: By the annual IEP review date, given 10 everyday events or spinner situations and the words certain, likely, unlikely and impossible, the student will label each event with the likelihood word that fits independently with at least 90% accuracy on likelihood and outcome items, on 3 of 4 consecutive probes, as measured by work-sample analysis collected every two weeks.
| Date | Task / materials | # correct | # attempted | % accuracycorrect ÷ attempted × 100 | Support levele.g., independent, 1 verbal prompt | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preview shows 4 of 12 rows.
- Score only items the student attempted unless the goal defines a fixed set of items. Use the same denominator every session.
- Percent = numerator ÷ denominator × 100. Round to one decimal place.
- Record the support actually provided, even if the goal is independent performance.
The CSV opens in Excel or Google Sheets, with formulas. Sheets print blank; no student data is stored.