Collecting regression and recoupment data
By the IEP Atlas editorial teamLast updated
Short answer
To collect regression and recoupment data, probe each target skill several times in the two weeks before a break, probe again on the first days back, then probe weekly until the student returns to the pre-break level. Regression is the drop from the pre-break median. Recoupment is the number of school days it takes to get back.
Regression and recoupment data shows the IEP team what happens to a student's skills over a break and how long recovery takes. Teams in many states use it to help decide extended school year services. Federal rules require ESY when the IEP team decides it is necessary to provide FAPE, and they leave the criteria to states and to individual decisions.[1] The data is only as good as the probes behind it.
This guide covers the collection method, from pre-break probes through recovery, with a step table, a worked example and the common errors. The factors teams weigh are explained in ESY eligibility criteria, and the program itself in ESY vs summer school. The least restrictive environment pillar covers where ESY fits among placement decisions.
What you need before you start
- The student's IEP goals, with the measure each one uses
- A probe for each goal you will track, such as a passage set, a trial sheet or a behavior count
- The school calendar, with every break of 5 school days or more marked
- A data sheet that leaves room for pre-break, return and weekly recovery probes
- Your state's ESY guidance, since states define what counts as significant regression or a long recovery (the CPIR summary of ESY is a good place to start)[2]
The steps and the time each one takes
| Step | What you do | Time |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Pick the skills to track | Choose 2 to 4 goal skills most at risk | 15 minutes once |
| 2. Set up the probe | Same materials, conditions and scoring for every probe | 20 minutes once |
| 3. Probe before the break | 3 probes in the last 2 weeks before the break | 5 to 10 minutes each |
| 4. Probe on return | 1 to 2 probes in the first 3 school days back | 5 to 10 minutes each |
| 5. Probe weekly until recovery | 1 probe a week until the score reaches the pre-break median | 5 to 10 minutes each |
| 6. Calculate and graph | Regression amount, percent and recoupment days | 15 minutes per skill |
| 7. Repeat across breaks | Winter, spring and summer if possible | Ongoing |
Step by step
1. Pick the skills to track
Do not try to track every goal. Pick the skills the team is most worried about, such as a reading rate, a communication skill, a self-care routine or a behavior. Skills the student only recently started to show are worth watching, because they can be the first to slip.
2. Set up the probe
Use the same kind of materials, the same setting, the same level of help and the same scoring for every probe. If you use reading passages, use unpracticed passages at the same level. If you use trials, keep the number of trials the same. A change in probe is a change in difficulty, and it will look like regression when it is not. The oral reading fluency and percent accuracy pages explain how to keep probes comparable.
3. Probe before the break
Take 3 probes in the last 2 weeks before the break, on different days. Use the median as the pre-break level. One probe is not enough, because a single good or bad day can set the whole comparison. The baseline data guide explains why the median is the safer number.
4. Probe on return
Probe in the first 1 to 3 school days back, under the same conditions. If the student was absent or the first day was unusual (a fire drill, a substitute), note it and take a second probe.
5. Probe weekly until recovery
Probe once a week until the score is back at or above the pre-break median. Count the school days from the return to the first probe that reaches it. That count is the recoupment time. If the student has not recovered in 8 weeks, keep probing and write down that recovery was still incomplete.
6. Calculate and graph
For each skill, record three numbers:
- Regression amount: pre-break median minus first return score
- Regression percent: regression amount ÷ pre-break median × 100
- Recoupment time: school days from return until the score reached the pre-break median
Graph the probes with a line at the pre-break median. A team reads a graph faster than a table. The IEP data graph and aimline guide shows how to set one up.
7. Repeat across breaks
One break gives one data point. Winter and spring breaks give the team a pattern before the spring ESY decision. Shorter breaks also show how quickly the student loses skills, which helps the team think about a longer summer gap.
Worked example from start to finish
This example is fictional. Jaden is in 2nd grade. The team is tracking two skills: reading rate on grade 1 passages and requesting help with a picture card.
Before winter break. Three reading probes in December: 38, 42 and 40 words correct per minute. Median: 40. Three help-request probes, 10 opportunities each: 7, 8 and 8 of 10. Median: 8 of 10.
Winter break. 10 school days off.
Return. First day back: 31 words correct per minute. Help requests: 4 of 10.
Calculations for reading. Regression amount: 40 minus 31 = 9 words correct per minute. Regression percent: 9 ÷ 40 × 100 = 22.5%.
Weekly reading probes after return. Week 1: 33. Week 2: 36. Week 3: 39. Week 4: 41. He reached 40 or more on the week 4 probe, which was school day 19 after return. Recoupment time: 19 school days.
Help requests. Week 1: 6 of 10. Week 2: 8 of 10. Recoupment time: 9 school days.
| Skill | Pre-break median | First day back | Regression | Recoupment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reading rate | 40 wcpm | 31 wcpm | 9 wcpm (22.5%) | 19 school days |
| Help requests | 8 of 10 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 10 (50%) | 9 school days |
What the team sees. Help requests dropped further but came back faster. Reading dropped less but took nearly 4 weeks to recover after a 2-week break. The team repeats the process over spring break. In April, it brings both graphs to the ESY discussion along with the other factors in its state's guidance. These numbers are illustrations, not cut-offs. States set their own standards.
Common mistakes
Weak: One probe before the break and one after. Better: Three probes before for a median, then weekly probes after until recovery.
Weak: A harder passage on the first day back. Better: The same level and type of passage every time.
Weak: "He seemed to lose a lot over break." Better: "Reading dropped from a median of 40 to 31 wcpm and took 19 school days to recover."
Weak: Counting calendar days for recoupment. Better: Count school days, and note any absences.
Weak: Tracking only academic skills. Better: Include communication, self-care or behavior skills the team is concerned about.
Weak: Starting data collection in May for a June ESY decision. Better: Start before winter break so there are two breaks of data by spring.
Templates and tools
- The reading fluency data sheet has room for repeated probes on the same passage level.
- The opportunity trial data sheet works for skills like requesting help.
- The maintenance data guide covers checking mastered skills over time, which is closely related.
- The ESY entry in the glossary gives a short definition to share with families.
State ESY standards differ. Check your state's guidance for how it defines significant regression and a reasonable recovery time.
Frequently asked questions
How long should recoupment take before a student needs ESY?
There is no federal number. States and courts set their own standards, and many look at more than regression and recoupment. Collect clear data and compare it with your state's current ESY guidance.
Can I use winter break data for an ESY decision?
Yes. Many teams use winter and spring break data because summer data is not available until after the decision. Shorter breaks show how the student responds to time away from instruction.
Is regression data required for ESY?
Federal rules do not require a specific type of data. ESY is decided by the IEP team for each student. Regression and recoupment data is one common way to support that decision.
Use it in IEP Atlas
- ESY in the IEP glossary
- Probe in the IEP glossary
- Reading fluency data sheet
- Opportunity trial data sheet
- Measuring oral reading fluency
Related guides
- Least restrictive environment, with examples
- ESY eligibility: regression, recoupment and critical skills
- ESY vs summer school
- Maintenance probes after mastery
- How to collect baseline data for an IEP goal
- The continuum of special education placements
Sources
- 34 CFR §300.106: Extended school year services, Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School
- ESY: Services Beyond the School Year for Students With IEPs, CPIR
Written and checked by the IEP Atlas editorial team under our editorial policy. This guide describes general practice and federal rules. It is not legal advice; your state may add requirements, and the IEP team makes the decisions for each student.