Making predictions IEP goals: 12 examples with rubric scoring
By the IEP Atlas editorial teamLast updated
Short answer
A making predictions IEP goal names the text, what the prediction must include, and a criterion. Example: given an unpracticed grade 3 story with 3 planned stops, Ava will make a prediction with one text clue and later say whether it was confirmed, scoring 3 of 3 rubric points at 2 of 3 stops on 3 probes.
A prediction is a guess about what comes next, based on clues in the text and what the reader knows. As an IEP goal it is easy to write badly. "Will make predictions about a story" can be met by any guess at all. A useful goal requires a clue, and usually a check after reading, because checking is where the comprehension happens.
The 12 goals below run from picture-supported predictions to predictions in novels and informational text. Each shows a condition, a baseline, a criterion and the measure, with a template link. Numbers are illustrations. For how to teach prediction within a full routine, see the cluster pillar on reading comprehension strategies, and for previewing as the step before predicting, see previewing text.
How to choose a prediction goal
Give a short probe: a story or article with 3 planned stops. At each stop, ask "What do you think will happen next? Why?" After reading on, ask "Were you right?" The student's answers point to the starting goal.
| What the student does | Sub-skill to target | Measurement |
|---|---|---|
| Says "I don't know" or gives no prediction | Making any prediction from pictures or title | Stops with a prediction, out of 3 |
| Predicts, but it does not fit the story ("a dragon comes") | Predictions that fit the text | Rubric points per stop |
| Predicts sensibly but cannot say why | Naming the text clue | Rubric points per stop |
| Predicts with a clue but never checks | Confirming or revising | Rubric points per stop |
| Handles stories but not informational text | Predicting content from features | Rubric points per section |
The What Works Clearinghouse guide for kindergarten through grade 3 lists activating prior knowledge and predicting among the comprehension strategies to teach explicitly.[1] Predicting is also one of the four roles in reciprocal teaching; see reciprocal teaching, QAR and SQ3R.
Predictions from pictures and titles (K to 2)
- During a picture walk of a new book, Leo will say or point to what happens next, with a fitting prediction at 2 of 3 stops on 3 weekly probes. Baseline: 0 of 3. Template.
- Shown the title and cover of a new book, Leo will predict what it is about and point to the picture clue for 4 of 5 books. Baseline: 1 of 5. Template.
- During a read-aloud, Ava will pick what happens next from 2 pictures and say why, scoring 2 of 3 rubric points at each of 3 stops on 3 probes. Baseline: 1 point per stop. Template.
Weak: "Leo will make predictions during read-alouds." Measurable: Goal 1 above. It names the book type, the number of stops and what counts as a fitting prediction.
Predictions with text evidence (grades 3 to 5)
- Given a new grade 3 story with 3 stops, Ava will make a prediction and name one text clue at 2 of 3 stops on 3 weekly probes. Baseline: 0 of 3 stops. Template.
- Given a grade 4 story, Mateo will predict how a character will act, using what the character did earlier, for 3 of 4 predictions on 3 probes. Baseline: 1 of 4. Template.
- Given a grade 4 passage with a cause and effect structure, Mateo will predict the effect of an event before reading it and name the cause, for 4 of 5 items on 3 probes. Baseline: 2 of 5. Template.
Weak: "Ava will make predictions using evidence with 80% accuracy." Measurable: Goal 1 above. It sets the text level, the stops, what a point means and the number of probes.
Confirming and revising predictions
- Given a new story with 3 stops, Ava will predict with a clue, then say whether it was confirmed and why. She will score 3 of 3 rubric points at 2 of 3 stops on 3 probes. Baseline: 1 point per stop. Template.
- In a grade 5 chapter book, Nico will log a prediction with a clue after each chapter and revise it after the next one, for 4 of 5 chapters in 2 books. Baseline: 1 of 5. Template.
- In small group reading, Nico will act as predictor, giving a prediction with a clue and checking the last one, for 3 of 4 sections in 3 of 4 sessions. Baseline: 1 of 4. Template.
Weak: "Nico will check his predictions." Measurable: Goal 1 above. It requires the confirm or revise step and a reason, scored on a rubric.
Predictions in informational text and novels (grades 6 to 12)
- Given a new textbook section, Jordan will preview its features and write 2 predictions, with at least 1 confirmed by the text, for 4 of 5 sections. Baseline: 1 of 5. Template.
- Given a grade 7 article, Jordan will use headings or signal words to predict the author's next point for 3 of 4 sections on 3 probes. Baseline: 1 of 4. Template.
- In a grade-level novel, Priya will predict how the main character will change and update it with evidence at 3 checkpoints, scoring 5 of 6 points. Baseline: 2 of 6. Template.
Weak: "Jordan will make predictions in content-area texts." Measurable: Goal 1 above. It names the text features used, the number of predictions and the check.
How to measure prediction goals
Use rubric scoring at each planned stop. A 3-point rubric covers most goals:
| Point | What earns it |
|---|---|
| Fit | The prediction makes sense given the story or text so far |
| Clue | The student names a specific clue from the text or pictures |
| Check | After reading on, the student says whether it was confirmed or changes it, with a reason |
Goals at the earlier level score only the first one or two points. Probe once a week, with 3 stops per probe, on unpracticed texts at the student's instructional level. A correct prediction is not required. A wrong prediction with a good clue, checked honestly, earns all 3 points.
A filled-in data sheet
This is one illustrative week for Ava's confirm-and-revise goal, recorded on a rubric scoring data sheet.
| Date | Text | Stop | Fit | Clue | Check | Total (of 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | "The Lost Kite" (grade 3) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Mar 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Mar 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Mar 11 | "Snow Day Plans" (grade 3) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Mar 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Mar 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Count stops at 3 of 3: 2 of 3 on March 4 and 2 of 3 on March 11. Both probes meet the goal's "2 of 3 stops." One more probe at criterion meets the goal.
Short-term objectives and adapting by grade
Break a prediction goal into objectives that add one rubric point at a time: first fit, then fit plus clue, then all three. For example, by the first progress report, Ava will make a fitting prediction at 3 of 3 stops; by the second, she will add a clue at 2 of 3 stops.
| Grade band | Text | Prediction must include |
|---|---|---|
| K to 2 | Picture books, read aloud | A fitting guess; pointing or a few words |
| 3 to 5 | Short stories and leveled chapter books | A clue from the text; confirm or revise |
| 6 to 8 | Novels, textbook sections | A clue, plus predictions about structure or character change |
| 9 to 12 | Literature, articles, primary sources | Predictions about argument, author's next point or theme, with evidence |
For more wording, see the comprehension goals page and IEP goals for reading comprehension. Probe design is covered in how to measure reading comprehension for IEP goals. Paste your draft into the goal checker before the meeting.
Frequently asked questions
Does a prediction have to be correct to count?
No. Score the clue and the check, not whether the guess came true. A wrong prediction with a good reason, checked and revised after reading, shows more comprehension than a lucky guess with no reason.
Is making predictions a strong enough skill for an IEP goal?
On its own it is a narrow target. It works best as part of a strategy routine or when the student cannot yet use clues at all. For many students, pair it with a goal for inference or summarizing.
How many stops should a prediction probe have?
Three stops in a short story or article works well. It gives enough opportunities to score without making the probe long. Space the stops so the text after each one confirms or changes the prediction.
Use it in IEP Atlas
- IEP goal checker
- Comprehension goals (reading)
- Rubric scoring measurement guide
- Make a prediction and check it after reading (goal template)
- Rubric scoring data sheet
Related guides
- Reading comprehension strategies for struggling readers
- Reading comprehension IEP goal examples
- Previewing text: a routine students with IEPs can run alone
- How to measure reading comprehension without a percent-of-questions trap
- IEP goals for main idea and details
Sources
- Improving Reading Comprehension in Kindergarten Through 3rd Grade, What Works Clearinghouse, Institute of Education Sciences
Written and checked by the IEP Atlas editorial team under our editorial policy. This guide describes general practice and federal rules. It is not legal advice; your state may add requirements, and the IEP team makes the decisions for each student.